SAP SE
XTRA-SAP
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 29,520 | 31,207 | 34,176 | 37,056.3 | 41,199.1 | 46,505 | 46,505 | 46,505 |
Revenue % Chg. | 9.5% | 5.7% | 9.5% | |||||
EBIT | 6,051 | 6,513 | 8,142 | 10,312.1 | 12,023.5 | 14,099.8 | 14,099.8 | 14,099.8 |
EBIT Margin | 20.5% | 20.9% | 23.8% | |||||
Tax Rate | 32% | 32.6% | 33.9% | |||||
NOPAT | 4,112.2 | 4,390.4 | 5,383.6 | 7,109.6 | 8,255.6 | 9,704.4 | 9,704.4 | 9,704.4 |
NOPAT Margin | 13.9% | 14.1% | 15.8% | 19.2% | 20% | 20.9% | 20.9% | 20.9% |
D&A | 1,569 | 1,150 | 1,052 | 1,376.2 | 1,473.4 | 1,540.3 | 1,540.3 | 1,540.3 |
D&A / Revenue | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | |||||
Capex | -877 | -785 | -797 | -820.1 | -1,020.1 | -1,142 | -1,142 | -1,142 |
Capex / Revenue | -3% | -2.5% | -2.3% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -143 | -27 | 623 | 154.6 | 171.9 | 194.1 | 194.1 | 194.1 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -0.5% | -0.1% | 1.8% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 4,661.2 | 4,728.4 | 6,261.6 | 7,820.3 | 8,880.8 | 10,296.8 | 10,296.8 | 10,296.8 |
UFCF % Chg. | -24.5% | 1.4% | 32.4% | 24.9% | 13.6% | 15.9% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 7,206.8 | 7,542.1 | 8,058.7 | 7,426.5 | 6,843.9 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 7,206.8 | 14,748.9 | 22,807.6 | 30,234.1 | 37,078 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 10,651 |
| Market Cap | 243,750.8 |
| Total Capital | 254,401.8 |
| Debt Weighting | 4.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 95.8% |
| WACC | 8.5% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 243,371.8 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 149,069.9 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 37,078 |
| Net Debt | -813 |
| Equity Value | 186,960.9 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,164.6 |
| Implied Share Price | 160.5 |
| Current Share Price | 208.2 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -22.9% |