Volkswagen AG
XTRA-VOW3
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 279,050 | 322,284 | 324,656 | 324,973.3 | 331,666.8 | 341,359.3 | 341,359.3 | 341,359.3 |
Revenue % Chg. | 11.5% | 15.5% | 0.7% | |||||
EBIT | 23,068 | 24,099 | 22,918 | 9,784 | 17,647 | 20,828.2 | 20,828.2 | 20,828.2 |
EBIT Margin | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | |||||
Tax Rate | 28.2% | 22.7% | 26.2% | |||||
NOPAT | 16,569.6 | 18,635.3 | 16,902.5 | 6,824.9 | 12,960.7 | 15,567.6 | 15,567.6 | 15,567.6 |
NOPAT Margin | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
D&A | 12,907 | 11,415 | 12,440 | 23,167.5 | 22,310.5 | 21,932.3 | 21,932.3 | 21,932.3 |
D&A / Revenue | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | |||||
Capex | -12,948 | -14,653 | -17,202 | -25,891.1 | -25,626.2 | -23,786.8 | -23,786.8 | -23,786.8 |
Capex / Revenue | -4.6% | -4.5% | -5.3% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -19,886 | -28,741 | -28,898 | -27,021.9 | -27,578.5 | -28,384.4 | -28,384.4 | -28,384.4 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -7.1% | -8.9% | -8.9% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | -3,357.4 | -13,343.7 | -16,757.5 | -22,920.6 | -17,933.5 | -14,671.3 | -14,671.3 | -14,671.3 |
UFCF % Chg. | -126.3% | 297.4% | 25.6% | 36.8% | -21.8% | -18.2% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | -22,418.8 | -17,156.8 | -13,728.5 | -13,428 | -13,133.9 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | -22,418.8 | -39,575.5 | -53,304.1 | -66,732 | -79,866 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 1.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.8% |
| Total Debt | 254,081 |
| Market Cap | 46,306.2 |
| Total Capital | 300,387.2 |
| Debt Weighting | 84.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 15.4% |
| WACC | 2.2% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 226,914.5 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 198,689.6 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | -79,866 |
| Net Debt | 195,937 |
| Equity Value | -77,113.4 |
| Shares Outstanding | 501.3 |
| Implied Share Price | -153.8 |
| Current Share Price | 107.5 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -243.1% |